The Tanzania double-header that shapes Nigeria’s AFCON 2027 hopes

Nigeria lost 3-0 to a team ranked 106 places below them, and the Group L table now shows it.

ThisDay reported (opens in a new tab) that Guinea-Bissau, ranked 132nd, beat 26th-ranked Nigeria in Bissau on 29 September. Franculino Dju scored in the 15th minute and Mama Balde in the 65th. Alvaro Djalo added a third in stoppage time. Guinea-Bissau lead with six points and Nigeria are second on three.

WHY TANZANIA MATTERS EVEN THOUGH THEY HAVE ALREADY QUALIFIED

Tanzania are co-hosts, so they have an automatic place at AFCON 2027. According to Voice of Nigeria (opens in a new tab), only one other team from Group L goes through, and Nigeria, Guinea-Bissau and Madagascar are fighting for that spot. That makes the two Tanzania games a points chase for Nigeria. They are in Uyo on 13 November and Dar es Salaam on 17 November, with two more matchdays to follow in March 2027.

WHAT WENT WRONG IN BISSAU

ThisDay’s report said Eric Chelle started Taiwo Awoniyi and Akor Adams up front with no wide players to feed them. It described Lookman’s effort before half-time and George Ilenikhena’s in the 85th minute as Nigeria’s only visible chances. Voice of Nigeria reported that Moses Simon and Moses Usor came on at half-time and the team improved somewhat. It was Chelle’s first loss in regulation time in a competitive match since he took charge, ThisDay noted.

Nigeria’s problem in Bissau was making chances more than finishing them.

OSIMHEN’S RETURN HELPS, BUT IT DOES NOT FIX THE SHAPE

Legit.ng, citing OwnGoal Nigeria, reported (opens in a new tab) that Victor Osimhen is back in the squad for Tanzania, along with Kelechi Iheanacho and Abdullahi Bewene. This was a report and not an official list at the time of writing. Osimhen missed the September games with a groin and adductor strain and came off the bench for Galatasaray on 9 October.

Our view: a fit Osimhen gives Nigeria a threat the team lacked in Bissau. But he cannot solve a shape that gives him nobody to play off. The Madagascar win a few days earlier, a 2-1 comeback, was called not too convincing by ThisDay. So the questions for 13 November are who plays wide and how many clear chances Nigeria make in open play. The scoreline can hide those.

THE COUNTERPOINT

Nigeria still control their own fate, with matches left against Guinea-Bissau and Madagascar. One bad night in Bissau does not erase Chelle’s record in qualifiers.

YOUR TURN

Should Chelle start Osimhen against Tanzania on 13 November, or ease him back in? Vote below and tell us who you would play on the wings.